German industrial production really is a bellwether for the global economic outlook. Expensive long-life investment goods orders down is a reflection of well informed customers opining with their capex wallets. Well it had to come to this, and apart from the average citizen, many will know.
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The easing that took place is assumed a political ploy, along the lines of globalism at a continental level. Sure those in government would have watched the bubble form in the south, the subsequent easing was further leverage during harmonisation. Get this though, most large countries in Europe have roughly similar national debt per capita, though obviously to GDP will give a different perception. However there is a major difference re. Germany and that is that it is a main creditor to the rest. Because unless you want a complete breakdown in the current European order, including non payments and trade borders, and the loss it might cause would be made more than obvious, then a combined budget, policy and administration will seem the only feasible management, and of course the ECB will hold the key to allowing that to work — without accord payments will not be met, with accord they will be repackaged with a few bonuses to go round as well.
Europe is quite disorganised at the moment, it is hard to tell if this is to purpose or reactionary, so it is hard to say exactly how this will evolve, or if EU will fragment. Toss in Brexit and it gets even more confusing. If you google the growth rates of major economies in Europe, most are around 1. Germany is on the high side. If you look as U. Insanity — doing the same thing over and over again, each time expecting a different result.
As Wolf has said man times, the intention of Fed policies was to boost asset values for the wealthy. And boy, did they ever. If this is insane, then insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and gaining more wealth each time. When I was a kid attending grade school fairs we would participate in events to win little prizes. One interesting toy we might win was what we called a Chinese finger puzzle. The puzzle was a woven tube about 4 inches long and just large enough to insert a finger into one end and another finger into the other end.
It was difficult to pull your fingers back out, but very easy to push them in deeper. Yet their politicians will no doubt continue to lecture the Spanish, Italian, Portugese and Greek citizens about the merits of working harder, for longer. You cannot live above your means and expect other people to pay the bill. Germany is not the sugar daddy of Ireland, Greece and others.
Nobody has to buy German products if they cannot afford them. But the German taxpayer is the sugar daddy of Greek bond holders mainly French and German Banks who would have taken a hit if Greece defaulted on its payments……..
South Korean exports growth or lack thereof is highly corallated with future global EPS growth and these corporate results will surely weigh on SK exports. This in turn is an extremely bad omen for equities.
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Important to give up sovereignty. So this means the dollar rally is intact. Emerging marlets will continue to get slammed due to the cost and scarcity of euro-dollars. So, pray tell, why is the usd on a slow but steady slide against the euro, given fed hikes, decent yield differentials, brexit, yellow wests, EU elections approaching, us midterms past, Italian populism… and now this slowdown?
Hope you enjoy it and leave it in the comments for others to read. It detrimentally affects various collateral markets, and in a very bad way.
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Negative feedback loops ensue. The eurozone does not have expansionary fiscal policy. While is it is true that the EU has a loose monetary policy, it is not working because it is in a liquidity trap. That means that there is no demand because individuals expect deflation so they are not taking advantage of the loose monetary policy.
The EU tight fiscal policy is not helping.
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Note that the EU has 7. Also, there is substantial output gap in the EU whereas the US does not have one. Exactly Shane. Same goes for Italy, Portugal and Spain. Eurozone is in reality a cover to allow Germany to flog its exports to other Eurozone member nations, among other things. This economic slowdown is not unique to Germany but has been spreading across the EU.
Moral Hazard got in the way. We hashed over something like this a while back.
Negative income tax. I get ads for Amazon and a board game sales site. The Real Tony. Wolf Richter. Steve, Online advertising serves you ads based on what algos think you want to see, based on numerous factors, including your browsing history. Ambrose Bierce. Not sure what gets Germany out of this. Solution: Different policy choices, one that increase wages and reduce profits.
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Nein, danke. Non, merci. No, gracias. Si No. Yet of 60 hours of tape Nixon had transcribed, under subpoena by the house judiciary commission, his coarsest expletives were eventually revealed as "shit" and "asshole". Nixon said "If my mother ever heard me use words like those she would turn over in her grave.
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